WINE TASTER ON 03/09/98 WITH 6 JUDGES AND 4 WINES BASED ON RANKS
Copyright (c) 1994-97 Richard E. Quandt
FLIGHT 1:
Number of Judges = 6
Number of Wines = 4
Identification of the Wine: The judges''s overall ranking:
Wine A is Jos. Phelps Cab.1977 ........ 1st place
Wine B is Jos. Phelps Cab.1979 ........ 3rd place
Wine C is Jos. Phelps Cab.1978 ........ 2nd place
Wine D is Jos. Phelps Cab.1976 ........ 4th place
The Judges'' Rankings
Judge Wine -> A B C D
Grant S. 1. 3. 4. 2.
Frank V. 1. 4. 3. 2.
Orley A. 3. 1. 2. 4.
John L. 1. 2. 3. 4.
Burt M. 3. 4. 1. 2.
Richard Q. 2. 3. 1. 4.
Table of Votes Against
Wine -> A B C D
Group Ranking -> 1 3 2 4
Votes Against -> 11 17 14 18
( 6 is the best possible, 24 is the worst)
Here is a measure of the correlation in the preferences of the judges which
ranges between 1.0 (perfect correlation) and 0.0 (no correlation:
W = 0.1667
The probability that random chance could be responsible for this correlation
is rather large, 0.3916. Most analysist would say that unless this
probability is less than 0.1, the judges preferences are not strongly related.
We now analyze how each tasters'' preferences are correlated with the group
preference. A correlation of 1.0 means that the taster''s preferences are a
perfect predictor of the group''s preferences. A 0.0 means no correlation,
while a -1.0 means that the taster has the reverse ranking of the group.
Correlation Between the Ranks of
Each Person With the Average Ranking of Others
Name of Person Correlation
Orley A. 0.4000
Burt M. 0.3162
Grant S. 0.1054
John L. -0.4000
Frank V. -0.4000
Richard Q. -0.7379
The wines were preferred by the judges in the following order. When the
preferences of the judges are strong enough to permit meaningful differentiation
among the wines, they are separated by ------------------- and are judged to be
significantly different.
1. ........ 1st place Wine A is Jos. Phelps Cab.1977
2. ........ 2nd place Wine C is Jos. Phelps Cab.1978
3. ........ 3rd place Wine B is Jos. Phelps Cab.1979
4. ........ 4th place Wine D is Jos. Phelps Cab.1976
Comments:
Comments by Orley Ashenfelter--tasting took place February 9, 1998:
This was a tasting of 4 adjacent vintages of California cabernet sauvignon
from a very reliable California producer in the 1970s. All the wines were
served in magnums blind. These vintages in California (1976-79) have
very different reputations for quality. The goal was to see whether the
vintages are really different. The answer, felt strongly by all present,
is no! The wines were outstanding drinking and of remarkable consistency.
However, these wines are ready to drink now. I noticed after the tastng that
my own ranks are perfectly predicted by the age of the wine: I tended to like
the slightly younger (and fresher) wines, somewhat to my own surprise! Drink
up.